Brad Lamb walks Toronto residents through the real estate market they are living in.
We are not going to do a very good job creating semi or detached homes anywhere close to the city. In the 416 we will not be able to add to the existing stock of houses ever again as all the land is developed. The supply is fixed in the 416 and very limited in the 905. The demand for homes is going up every year. Population growth guarantees higher prices forever, with occasional moments of recession and panic. During a recession, prices will fall but only momentarily, creating an amazing buying opportunity. The condominium market is a bit of a different story. Some think that it is due for a fall. I believe that prices are set to soar. Land in central Toronto has become scarce and very expensive. Condominiums have remained very affordable. Most development land that remains consists of sites with under utilized buildings or assemblies of multiple properties. Both options are typically seen in fully developed expensive cities (like London, Hong Kong, New York, Paris etc). This is what Toronto is becoming; an expensive international city. Local, federal, and provincial levies and taxes continue to drive development costs higher. This combination of fees and taxes currently eats up approximately 25% of the cost of new high-rise new housing in Toronto. It is only going to rise. Green technologies and other new building code initiatives like fully sprinklered buildings and ground water taxes are adding additional costs to high rise housing. Currently, the cost of delivering a high rise in Toronto before profit is edging close to $600 per square foot. In some areas, it is closer to $800 per square foot. Keep in mind that this is the cost of creating high rise homes. New sales prices must now commonly be $700-900 per square foot (PSF) to allow for a reasonable development profit. The MLS condo resale market will see a 10-15% increase in sales volume this year. It will be a record year for sales. I believe prices will rise 5-10% this year in the resale condominium market. Over the last 5 years, we have seen a more stable 2-3% increase in prices, I believe that scenario is now over. Detached and semi-detached homes will appreciate 10-15% this year and sales will be up 10-15% in volume largely because so little will come up for sale. An interesting statistic that I follow is the number of condos for sale in C01, C02, C03, C08, C09, C10, C11 (an area bounded by DVP-Eglinton-Dufferin-Lakeshore). The volume of condos for sale in the region is down 14.5% this year and the volume for rent is down by 32.3%. This all points to significant increases for both sale prices and rental rates. Condo rental rates will rise 5-10% this year alone. There are not enough condos for sale or rent in central Toronto. It is currently particularly difficult to find a condo rental in any part of the GTA.
Now, some of you may believe that interest rates are going to rise and rain on the parade. That is not going to happen any time soon. Low rates are here for a long time. I believe at least 5 more years, perhaps 15 years. Even when rates start to rise we will stay in a low interest-low inflation environment for a long period of time. When interest rates rise it will be gradually. Governments are huge borrowers. All the municipal, state, provincial, and federal governments around the world are essentially bankrupt. Higher interest rates makes the situation worse. I cannot see any country intentionally bankrupting itself through a high interest rate policy.
2016 is going to be a very big year for Toronto real estate. Prices will be significantly higher in all areas and categories. Volumes for resale homes will smash last year’s record by 10%. Average prices will soar by 10%. New condo sales will stay robust with demand outstripping supply. Toronto will continue to be a hot spot for international money as it will continue to be considered a safe haven for money and investments.
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N5R.com is pleased to present a four minute film it produced about one of its projects in Rosseau, Ontario called The Rossington.
- This investment property sits in the heart of Muskoka
- Muskoka is the world's best vacation destination according to National Geographic Magazine
- Enjoy the montage of views from the surrounding area, The Rossington exterior, and what awaits the visitor inside
- This is just the place a renter from Toronto heading to Muskoka would want, and that's what makes it a brilliant property investment
At 2:13 – It's not only families who go to Muskoka. Hear who else could be interested in renting at The Rossington.
At 2:33 – What can The Rossington offer that its competitors can't, and in a more fun environment?
At 3:14 – You don't need a plane to visit The Rossington if you're from Toronto. Hear how close it is.
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Strong Condo Sales and Price Growth in Q1 2016
Greater Toronto Realtors reported 5,974 condo apartment sales through the MLS in the first quarter of 2016. The number of transactions represented a 21.2% increase compared to 4,930 transactions reported in Q1 2015.
In the City of Toronto, which accounted for 70% of condo apartment sales in the GTA, sales were up by 20.0%. The average selling price in the City of Toronto was $423,166 up 9.7% from Q1 2015.
The number of new listings in the GTA reported in Q1 was down by 1.7% compared to the same period in 2015.
"It is clear that the demand for condominium apartments more than kept up with the supply of listings in the first quarter of this year. This housing type is an important entry point into home ownership for a lot of GTA households, particularly in the City of Toronto. Recent polling undertaken for TREB by IPSOS suggested that approximately half of home purchases made in the GTA this year would be accounted for by first-time buyers ," said Toronto Real Estate Board Mr. McLean.
The average GTA selling price grew in Q1 up by 8.1% from the same time last year to $393,589.
“While the condominium apartment market segment remains the best supplied in the GTA, market conditions have tightened considerably since the first quarter of 2015. Not surprisingly, the pace of year-over-year price growth has accelerated over the same period of time,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analyses.
Other notable statistics include the average days on the market for Q1 at 31 days. Active listings were 5,245 in Q1-down 15.9% from Q1 2015.
Sellers are looking for market value for their property. I prepare a comparative market analysis (CMA) for all of my Buyer clients prior to submitting an offer to determine the property's market value range
Real estate is very building specific. The numbers as reported above are GTA averages. Results in one building do not indicate that all other buildings are experiencing the same results.
There were 6,458 condominium apartment rental transactions reported through TREB’s MLs system during Q1 2016. This result represented a year-over-year increase of 6.5% compared to Q1 2015.
Tighter market conditions translated into strong average annual rates of rent growth. GTA-wide, average one-bedroom and two-bedroom rents were up by more than the rate of inflation.
The vacancy rate for a condo apartment in the City of Toronto for Q1 2016 was 1.8%.
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